Methodology
How predictions work
This dashboard combines 5 signals to predict the Eurovision 2026 final ranking: betting odds, social virality (YouTube + TikTok), vocal quality analysis, historical voting patterns, and jury alliance modeling.
The model
An XGBoost LambdaMART ensemble trained on Eurovision data from 2015-2025, optimized for ranking accuracy. Features include betting market probabilities, YouTube/TikTok growth metrics, audio analysis scores, historical country performance, and voting bloc alliance strengths.
Confidence tiers
Each prediction includes a confidence tier derived from conformal prediction intervals. These are distribution-free intervals computed from leave-one-year-out cross-validation residuals.
Data sources
- Betting odds: 13 bookmakers via EurovisionWorld.com
- YouTube metrics: yt-dlp (public page scraping)
- TikTok metrics: yt-dlp + Apify free tier
- Audio: Demucs, CREPE, Parselmouth, librosa, Essentia, Whisper
- Historical: josago97, Spijkervet, kasiadamska datasets